The Heisman Market Before Week 0: CJ Carr Is the Favorite, and History Says Fade Him
Notre Dame's CJ Carr edges Arch Manning at the top of the board. But the last preseason favorite to actually win was Marcus Mariota in 2014 — the favorite is almost always wrong.
August 27, 2026 at 4:11 AM EDT
1 min read
Before Week 0, the 2026 Heisman board has a narrow top: CJ Carr, Notre Dame's quarterback, is the favorite around +750, with Texas's Arch Manning a hair behind near +775. Behind them, Miami's Darian Mensah (the Duke transfer) has separated for third, with Ohio State's Julian Sayin (+1200) and Dante Moore (+1100) in the next tier.
Here's the single most useful fact about this market: the preseason favorite almost never wins. The last one to do it was Marcus Mariota in 2014. Every year since, the trophy has gone to someone the market wasn't leading with in August.
Why the favorite is a trap
The Heisman is a narrative award as much as a performance one, and narratives are built in-season, not in July. The winner is usually a quarterback (16 of the last 20) on a team that overachieves — which means the value isn't at the top of the board, it's in the tier of players whose teams the market is underrating. Manning is the cautionary tale in real time: the 2025 preseason favorite, he had a disappointing year and enters 2026 with something to prove rather than a coronation.
How we'd play it
Futures like this reward finding the story before it forms. Laying a short price on the chalk (Carr, Manning) is paying full retail for the least likely part of the distribution. The historically smarter approach is a small position on a mid-board quarterback attached to a rising team — the +2500-to-+5000 range is where past winners actually lived in August. And with the top so tight, shop the number: a name at +1200 one place and +1600 another is a meaningful edge on a longshot.
None of this is a lock — it's a lottery with a QB bias and a fade-the-favorite history. Bet it like one.